Yet another misguided prediction about AI
New Scientist reports on a survey held among AI researchers who, according to the magazine, predict that around 2060 AI will outperform humans on every task. Elon Musk added on twitter that he thinks this prediction is not accurate: according to him this is already going to happen around 2030/40. I do not believe in these predictions. I think there will certainly be tasks left that humans will do better. To me it seems obvious that computers of the kind we have now will actually never be capable of writing good poems, doing philosophy, giving psychological advise, mourning, showing compassion, understanding mathematics, to name a few things. I think it is interesting that people who do believe that someday AI will surpass us in anything, have no other argument than that AI is constantly getting better at tasks. What many people do not seem to realise is that AI is getting better mostly because computers are getting faster and more data is available. But they are still the same kind of limited and deterministic machines that in my eyes are unlikely to be up to every task performed by humans. Computers will get better and better. But, AI will not get better in the same pace; at a certain point it will bump into the boundaries determined by the computational concepts and theories our current machines are based on.